Context

As of March 23 2021, there are 123 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2.7 million deaths reported to WHO for the 194 Member States.

COVID-19 mortality is an incomplete picture

Example

Regions

Ratio of excess to COVID-19

Modeling scaling factors for excess

\(log(s) = log\left(\frac{Observed}{Expected + covid19}\right) = X\beta + \varepsilon\) where \(\varepsilon \sim N(0, \sigma^2)\) and \(x_i \in \{SDI, NCD, Region\}\)

Predicting country excess

Predicting country excess (ctd)

Mapping mean predicted excess mortality

Regional numbers of excess mortality

Overall for the year 2020:

Barplots of regional excess deaths

Barplots of regional excess death-rates

Discussion (To Do)